{
  "version": 1,
  "computedOn": "2026-11-06",
  "kind": "retrospective illustration; not a pre-match prediction or backtest",
  "source": "https://cyberscore.live/en/matches/team-synapse-vs-dawn-bulls-190713/",
  "match": {
    "event": "EPL Masters III",
    "stage": "Group B",
    "date": "2026-10-23",
    "game": 3,
    "radiant": "Dawn Bulls",
    "dire": "Synapse",
    "winner": "Synapse",
    "duration": "56:07",
    "kills": [
      42,
      40
    ]
  },
  "teams": [
    [
      67,
      36,
      38,
      86,
      9
    ],
    [
      53,
      107,
      69,
      21,
      50
    ]
  ],
  "importText": "赛事：EPL Masters III · Group B\n局数：第 3 局\nDawn Bulls（天辉）：Spectre、Necrophos、Beastmaster、Rubick、Mirana\nSynapse（夜魇）：Nature's Prophet、Earth Spirit、Doom、Windranger、Dazzle",
  "settings": {
    "positionLocks": [
      {},
      {}
    ],
    "personalization": null,
    "positions": "automatic inference; not verified match roles",
    "perspective": "Radiant / Dawn Bulls"
  },
  "sourceRelease": "20261106-home-background-locales-v1",
  "files": {
    "bp-engine.mjs": "80af7f4c879658674d5bf806d7795842d7d48b49a78e49c66717019a9b6a3221",
    "bp-lanes.mjs": "1c13cc98f1d1581143d75b55e7d35b3cab1961413d61d266b8fc5e773156d339",
    "overview-analysis.mjs": "5b1f58e3231acb653ee08c9020f9182106060cab76fd5434a89d089119572974",
    "bp-data.json": "4f72605dd109bf35e24bfbcbfa059cc19d2e8c432827ff7ac9a94bd7f6130840",
    "bp-high-rank.json": "3d3a3f32df76df6b28d0fc02a7a75b4aba64f5c9c885bd57a56262a1595ccfdb",
    "bp-lane-quality.json": "550642dfa5362c2aed5e4f0ad2650e3a4aea3f753183229f2fdfd63bd24e3f8d"
  },
  "snapshots": {
    "professional": {
      "matches": 3462,
      "patch": "7.41a–f",
      "snapshot": "2026-11-01T05:28:40.098637+00:00",
      "cohortSha256": "f3c36c7d83b310e59f1a8be04bdb7d9915855069d76d40c4059fe03519223dd1",
      "catalogSha256": "a46c9e4a6cb8bb0ab56d1946f14e3b51e6fd9fb2a50aab66314b70f21be8b67e",
      "laneSourceSha256": "b7d48df878c113e6342b392752b14f59dfe1c941cae0ca65b69dd22d2516f0fd",
      "roleTeams": 3887,
      "laneMatches": 1278,
      "laneTimeSeconds": 600,
      "roleMethod": "lane_role + 10min lane-farm order; exclude roaming, non-2/1/2 lanes, missing time600 and farm separation<300",
      "laneMetric": "10-minute lane participants cumulative earned-gold and XP difference; includes rotations, not net worth or isolated laning causal effect",
      "rulesVersion": "captains-7.40",
      "ruleSources": [
        "https://www.dota2.com.cn/article/details/20251216/220450.html",
        "https://www.dota2.com.cn/article/details/20230809/220352.html"
      ]
    },
    "relations": {
      "patch": "7.41f",
      "start": 1789516800,
      "cutoff": 1791089892,
      "matches": 100000,
      "source": "OpenDota Explorer · public_matches",
      "rankLabel": "公开最高段位档（75；超凡五星 / 冠绝混合）",
      "minAverageRankTier": 75,
      "minKnownRankPlayers": 5,
      "gameMode": 22,
      "lobbyType": 7,
      "snapshot": "2026-10-04T04:58:12+00:00",
      "firstMatchTime": 1790661685,
      "lastMatchTime": 1791088529,
      "completeSincePatch": false,
      "sampleCap": 100000,
      "cohortSha256": "7809f1fc353a7973559bfaa7ea6fc2a305e600427e836439393d43ba97fec8a1",
      "patchSource": "https://www.dota2.com/newsentry/677383425371407609?l=english",
      "patchMethod": "发布时间之后的保守时间边界；公开比赛表不提供逐局子版本字段",
      "rankMethod": "OpenDota averageMedal folds rank_tier 80 into 75; average among known ranks, not a 7000+ MMR or all-player Immortal guarantee",
      "method": "ten-hero logistic main-effects residual, L2=0.001; residual shrinkage n/(n+100)",
      "shrinkage": 100,
      "coverage": {
        "counter": {
          "observedPairs": 8001,
          "medianGames": 194,
          "below30Percent": 5.9
        },
        "synergy": {
          "observedPairs": 7996,
          "medianGames": 145,
          "below30Percent": 11.3
        }
      },
      "temporalCheck": {
        "splitStart": 1791007864,
        "trainingGames": 79578,
        "heldOutGames": 20000,
        "mainEffects": {
          "games": 20000,
          "logLoss": 0.679840941312044,
          "brier": 0.24342367763921638
        },
        "constant50": {
          "games": 20000,
          "logLoss": 0.6931471805599454,
          "brier": 0.25
        },
        "note": "Temporal check of main-effects baseline only. Not a validation of BP recommendations; repeated players are not controlled."
      }
    },
    "lanes": {
      "cutoff": 1793510916,
      "patch": "7.41",
      "subpatch": "7.41f",
      "subpatchStart": 1789516800,
      "minDuration": 600,
      "completedByCutoff": true,
      "matches": 3442,
      "coverage": {
        "completeMatches": 3442,
        "midMatches": 2766,
        "currentMidMatches": 671,
        "excludedEdgeLanes": 2774,
        "edgeMatches": 2887,
        "edgeLanes": 4110,
        "excludedMid": 676,
        "currentCompleteMatches": 794,
        "currentEdgeMatches": 695,
        "currentEdgeLanes": 1023
      },
      "snapshot": "2026-11-01T05:28:36+00:00",
      "sourceSha256": "4d64e3ad359fda9bdf2ef3c0f00bc100a5028570081bd7d735d7f892a58edf29",
      "source": "OpenDota parsed professional/premium matches",
      "seriesLabel": "7.41 系列职业比赛",
      "currentLabel": "7.41f 职业比赛",
      "times": [
        300,
        480,
        600
      ],
      "minDecisionSamples": 12,
      "shrinkage": 20,
      "method": "Economic strength: mean(0.35 gold5 difference + 0.65 gold8 difference) / population lane-type SD; separate Student-t 95% mean interval. Legacy BP composite retained pending temporal validation.",
      "economyDefinition": {
        "version": 1,
        "gold5Weight": 0.35,
        "gold8Weight": 0.65,
        "unit": "cumulative-earned-gold",
        "bands": [
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          0.5,
          1
        ],
        "calibration": "provisional-descriptive",
        "minDisplaySamples": 3,
        "minConfidenceSamples": 12,
        "referenceOrientation": "mid radiant minus dire; sides safe minus off",
        "bpScore": "legacy-composite"
      },
      "limitations": "Rotations, ganks, player strength and support impact are not isolated. Series includes current; never count them as independent. Public hero-only matches cannot supply early lane metrics."
    }
  },
  "maps": [
    {
      "1": 67,
      "2": 36,
      "3": 38,
      "4": 86,
      "5": 9
    },
    {
      "1": 53,
      "2": 107,
      "3": 69,
      "4": 21,
      "5": 50
    }
  ],
  "rows": [
    {
      "own": [
        "Spectre",
        "Mirana"
      ],
      "enemy": [
        "Doom",
        "Windranger"
      ],
      "ownRoles": [
        1,
        5
      ],
      "enemyRoles": [
        3,
        4
      ],
      "n": 7,
      "currentN": 2,
      "source": "series",
      "sourceLabel": "7.41 系列职业比赛",
      "context": "core",
      "status": "样本不足",
      "supported": false,
      "rawGold": 342.29,
      "interval": [
        0.045555,
        0.589557
      ],
      "effect": 0.317556,
      "economy": {
        "mean": 291.535714,
        "std": 318.135047,
        "interval": [
          -2.690149,
          585.761578
        ],
        "referenceStd": 645.52262,
        "referenceN": 4110,
        "standardized": 0.451627,
        "available": true,
        "grade": "小优倾向",
        "confidence": "低可信度",
        "direction": 1,
        "confirmed": false
      },
      "method": "核心直接同路（辅助搭配未控制）",
      "assignmentMass": 0.8219643963974681
    },
    {
      "own": [
        "Necrophos"
      ],
      "enemy": [
        "Earth Spirit"
      ],
      "ownRoles": [
        2
      ],
      "enemyRoles": [
        2
      ],
      "n": 9,
      "currentN": 4,
      "source": "series",
      "sourceLabel": "7.41 系列职业比赛",
      "context": "full",
      "status": "样本不足",
      "supported": false,
      "rawGold": 759.22,
      "interval": [
        0.549852,
        0.861239
      ],
      "effect": 0.705545,
      "economy": {
        "mean": 624.822222,
        "std": 273.813393,
        "interval": [
          414.350629,
          835.293816
        ],
        "referenceStd": 611.787644,
        "referenceN": 2766,
        "standardized": 1.021306,
        "available": true,
        "grade": "大优倾向",
        "confidence": "低可信度",
        "direction": 1,
        "confirmed": false
      },
      "method": "实际中路 5 / 8 分钟",
      "assignmentMass": 0.6122028314210569
    },
    {
      "own": [
        "Beastmaster",
        "Rubick"
      ],
      "enemy": [
        "Nature's Prophet",
        "Dazzle"
      ],
      "ownRoles": [
        3,
        4
      ],
      "enemyRoles": [
        1,
        5
      ],
      "n": 10,
      "currentN": 8,
      "source": "series",
      "sourceLabel": "7.41 系列职业比赛",
      "context": "core",
      "status": "样本不足",
      "supported": false,
      "rawGold": -205.88,
      "interval": [
        -0.468076,
        0.167713
      ],
      "effect": -0.150182,
      "economy": {
        "mean": -236.355,
        "std": 379.122428,
        "interval": [
          -507.562827,
          34.852827
        ],
        "referenceStd": 645.52262,
        "referenceN": 4110,
        "standardized": -0.366145,
        "available": true,
        "grade": "小优倾向",
        "confidence": "低可信度",
        "direction": -1,
        "confirmed": false
      },
      "method": "核心直接同路（辅助搭配未控制）",
      "assignmentMass": 0.5256265920427646
    }
  ],
  "limitations": [
    "Match roles are not inferred from player list order.",
    "Post-match data can include the target match and later matches. No holdout evaluation was performed.",
    "Lane statistics are historical matchup aggregates, not this match’s measured early-game gold or causal explanation.",
    "No win probability or prediction accuracy claim is computed."
  ]
}