What did Spirit’s last pick change after Timbersaw?

Can we say which lineup is stronger?

With the roles and data fixed here, Spirit’s actual completed lineup scores 51.10, a slight preference in this model. This is not a 51.10% win probability. The actual last-pick OD ranked 43 among the model’s position-one candidates. The ranking did not prioritize that choice; the eventual win cannot establish that the model foresaw it.

Match and calculation conditions

Event

PARI UNIVERSE by FISSURE · Grand Final · 2026-11-01

Game / result

Game 2 · Spirit won · 72:55 · Match ID 9071689576

Faction / pick order

Yandex: Radiant, first pick; Spirit: Dire, second pick

Calculation time

2026-11-06T17:52:35.784Z (UTC)

Snapshots

Professional and lane data: November 1, 2026; high-rank relationships: October 4, 2026. Coverage is 7.41 series / 7.41f; this does not independently establish the match’s exact sub-patch.

Roles are explicit inputs, not inferred from list order

Roles follow the map-specific bo3.gg scoreboard: Spirit Clockwerk at position four, Techies at five. Eventual roles are retrospective information, so this does not fully reconstruct the coaches’ information at the time.

Why examine action 23?

The first 22 actions contain 14 bans and eight picks. Yandex took Timbersaw at 23; Spirit filled its carry slot with Outworld Destroyer at 24. If we change Yandex’s offlaner, Spirit should be allowed to choose a different reply, rather than treating OD as inevitable in every branch.

What still needs replay evidence?

Check whether Timber can establish front-line pressure, whether Spirit can keep reaching and dealing with him, and how control and saves affect each side’s damage windows. This page verifies the draft and records, but does not review every fight; these questions are not established explanations of the result.

What does the comparison support?

The table includes actual Timbersaw and the four highest-ranked alternative offlaners at action 23. Eligible Spirit carries are enumerated again for each branch. This uses a broad role pool, without ATF’s or Yatoro’s personal pools. Differences describe model sensitivity under these conditions, not proof of a better real-world draft.

How does this relate to prediction markets?

This is a single-game lineup study, not a series win probability. No verified historical market prices or trade execution data are included, so it cannot establish mispricing or improved returns. Keep the eventual result separate from information available before the match.

How can you inspect the inputs?

Copy the lineup below into Lineup Overview, then check the roles. For a manual draft replay, follow the 24 actions below with Yandex picking first. The download preserves inputs, candidate branches, snapshots and file hashes. Updated data or engine versions may change results; compare conditions first.

Compare branches with a fresh Spirit reply

All numbers are composite scores from Spirit’s perspective: higher means this model favors Spirit more, not a win probability. Role eligibility is not player comfort.

Copy the actual lineup

Radiant maps to A and Dire to B. Listing order does not lock roles; check the role table above.

Team Yandex (Radiant): Gyrocopter, Slark, Timbersaw, Windranger, Witch Doctor
Team Spirit (Dire): Outworld Devourer, Sand King, Enigma, Clockwerk, Techies

Complete 24-action draft

Sources and download

Match facts come from the pages below. Analysis and interpretation are authored by Bladeform; the sources do not endorse this model.

• Captains Mode · match 9071689576 ↗
• OLLO · draft sequence ↗
• bo3.gg · Game 2 player roles ↗